Recession Alert - Probable over the next 12 to 18 months

Adviser Soapbox

Recession Alert

James Stack

InvesTech Research

03.24.05, 10:15 AM ET

NEW YORK - It's a historical fact that not one recession in the past 40 years has been forecast in advance by any major poll of economists. Fortunately, we have a better track record than most economists. So it's with a bit of trepidation that we are giving you a "Recession Alert" in this issue of InvesTech.

The trepidation comes from the possibility that our subscribers might overreact and run for cover. A recession has not begun and is not necessarily imminent in the coming months. However, certain trends suggest that a recession will become increasingly probable over the next 12 months to 18 months. And if underlying pressures are not resolved, it will almost become a certainty by 2007.

Here, we examine some of those trends and pressures. Meanwhile, our investment strategy is following a "steady as she goes" approach. There are still profits available in this bull market, but one must be more selective...and respectful of downside risk. And in my own personal perspective, I admonish subscribers to take extra caution in outside investments that sound too good to be true. They usually are.

Read the entire article at: Forbes Magazine