Stock Market Update - Monday, Nov. 1, 2010 - Mixed Outlook - Minor Gains Expected

Stock Market Update

Monday, Nov. 1, 2010

Latest US Economic News Headlines:

USA EQUITY INDEXES: (NOV. 1, 4:05 PM EDT)

DDow Jones 11,124.62 +6.13 (+0.06%)
S&P 500    1,184.38 +1.12 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq     2,504.84 -2.57 (-0.10%)

Dow Jones 3:00 PM Averages: DJIA 11,115.61 DN 2.88
  30 INDUS     11,115.61 DN    2.88 OR    0.03%
  20 TRANSP     4,752.37 DN    1.92 OR    0.04%
  15 UTILS        401.15 DN    3.71 OR    0.92%
  65 STOCKS     3,856.31 DN    7.33 OR    0.19%

US DOLLAR FUTURES INDEX DXY: NOV. 1, 4:04PM EDT: 77.30   0.39 (0.51%) 

US COMMODITY PRICES: (NOV.1: 4:05 PM EDT)

Crude Oil     82.78     - 0.20%
Natural Gas     3.83     - 0.18%
Gasoline     2.09     - 0.32%
Heating Oil     2.27     - 0.30%
Gold     1351.68     - 0.45%
Silver     24.65     - 0.24%
Copper     3.78     + 1.31%

US Stocks Mixed, Boosted By US and Chinese Data and Earnings

The U.S. stock market advanced modestly Monday, boosted by encouraging earnings reports and global manufacturing data. But investors tread lightly ahead of major market events later in the week. U.S. stocks slipped in late trading Monday afternoon as the dollar rebounded.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against both the euro and the yen. The euro was recently trading at $1.3885, down from $1.3947 late Friday in New York.

US stocks extended earlier gains on Monday after a report showed that manufacturing activity rose at a faster pace than expected in October. The S&P 500 Index advanced 10.57 points, or 0.89 percent, to trade at 1,193.83 at 10:55 am.

The Semiconductor Industry Association said global chip sales rose 2.9% in September from a month earlier. Global chip sales rose to $26.5 billion in September from August, the seventh-straight period of sequential gains, as results for the 3Q rose 6.1% from the spring.  Intel shares climbed 2.4%, while Hewlett-Packard rose 0.9%.

The U.S. market kicked off November trading with modest gains, boosted by encouraging earnings reports and Chinese data, but investors tread lightly ahead of major market events later in the week.

At the market open the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 85 points, or 0.7%, to 11203. Technology components gained after the Semiconductor Industry Association said global chip sales rose 2.9% in September from a month earlier. Intel climbed 2.5%, while Cisco rose 1.1% and Microsoft added 0.9%.

Market moves are likely to be muted as traders brace for the results of Tuesday's midterm elections and Wednesday's conclusion of a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy-

making committee. 

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 2521. The Standard & Poor's 500-share index rose 0.6% to 1190, led by its energy and technology stocks.

Baker Hughes surged 5.4% after its third-quarter earnings soared as the oilfield-services company benefited from a rebound in North America, a seasonal recovery in Canada and the April acquisition of BJ Services.

Adding to hopes for global economic growth, two measures of Chinese manufacturing data unexpectedly increased. A set of data from HSBC showed one of the biggest month-on-month increases since the index was launched in 2004. The Shanghai Composite rose 2.5%.

The strong Chinese data put pressure on the dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six others, slipped 0.3%.

U.S. CORPORATE EARNINGS NEWS:

Ambac Financial Group tumbled 56% after the bond insurer warned that its board declined to make an interest payment and said it is negotiating plans for a prepackaged bankruptcy proceeding with senior debtholders. If it can't reach an agreement for such a plan, it plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by the end of the year.

U.S. shares of BHP Billiton rose 1.4% as its $39 billion hostile bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan is back in the spotlight after the Sunday Times (of London) newspaper reported that the mining giant is considering lifting its bid by 10%. Shares of Potash edged down 0.2%.

Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG), the largest U.S. mall owner by number of properties, on Monday posted third-quarter net income that more than doubled from the year-ago figure and logged gains in occupancy, tenant sales and lease rates that underscore a nascent turnaround in the U.S. mall industry. Simon Property, which owns 343 U.S. retail properties, reported third-quarter net income of $230.6 million, or 79 cents per share. Its net income in last year's third quarter was $105.5 million, or 38 cents per share.

Pharmaceutical products distributor will buy privately held oncology-services company in move that should allow McKesson to help determine the most effective treatments for cancer patients. Deal value includes $1.6B of debt.

AIG reported that it completed the $16.2 billion sale of its second-largest foreign life-insurance business to MetLife with last week's initial public offering of AIA Group, meaning it has raised $36.71 billion that will go toward repaying aid given it by the U.S.

Among stocks reporting earnings, Intercontinental Exchange slipped 0.7% even as its third-quarter earnings rose 10% on record trade on its U.S. futures markets and a rebound in energy trading, but the exchange had acquisition-related costs and slower activity in its credit division.

Corning rose 0.7% after its third-quarter profit jumped 22%, boosted by higher sales and margins, though its results just missed analysts' expectations. Corning earns $785 million, or 50c a share, in 3Q on higher sales and margins, but results just miss analysts' expectations. Corning expects glass prices to fall by a mid-single-digit range in 4Q due to ample supply.  Shares up 2%. Corning, one of the leading providers of glass used in LCD screens for electronics, said it expects glass prices to fall slightly in the fourth quarter due to ample supply.

Humana rose 0.4% after its third-quarter profit rose 30% as revenue rose on increases in enrollment. Humana's profit was up $393.2 million. Humana, one of the nation's biggest providers of privately-run Medicare Advantage health plans for seniors, also lifted its outlook for the year.

U.S. ECONOMIC DATA:

US Markets Higher on Strong Manufacturing Index

Companies are tempering orders after replenishing inventories, at the same time growing overseas demand.

U.S. "Consumer's" Cutting Spending
US Consumer Spending Rises Less Than Forecast, Incomes Unexpectedly Drop Consumer spending rose less than forecast in September as incomes dropped. Consumer spending rose 0.2% in September after increasing by 0.5% in the previous two months, the Commerce Department said. Americans' incomes fell 0.1% in September after a 0.4% rise in August. 

The core price index for personal consumption expenditures, which excludes food and energy prices because of their volatility, was flat in September compared to August.

Construction Edged Upward
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly climbed in September, the first gain in three months as the economy struggles to recover.

The unexpected gain was driven by the public sector, where spending rose 1.3% to $319.74 billion. Federal spending shot up 6.1%.

Spending on construction projects rose by 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $801.75 billion compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Monday. But the government revised down spending in August, estimating it fell 0.2% instead of gaining 0.4% as originally reported. July spending plunged 2.6%.

Private-sector construction spending was unchanged, at $482.01 billion.
Spending on non-residential projects was flat in September; outlays rose for schools and churches but fell for hotels. Over the past year, non-residential project outlays are down 12.4%.

Spending on U.S. residential projects jumped 1.8% to $242.18 billion after a big, 4.0% drop in August. The housing market is having difficulty dealing with the loss of a government subsidy for home buyers that expired in April.

The Commerce Department report on construction spending can be found at http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf

October Factory Activity Expands

The ISM's manufacturing purchasing managers' index increased to 56.9 last month from 54.4 in September. Readings above 50 indicate expanding activity, and September was the 15th consecutive month of growth, said the ISM.

The sub-indexes showed strength. The ISM's new orders index increased to 58.9 from 51.1, while the production index jumped to 62.7 from 56.5. Factory employment picked up. The index stood at 57.7 in October from 56.5 in the prior month.

The inventory index Fell to 53.9 from 55.6.

Price pressures remained at worrisome levels. The prices index in October rose to 71.0 from 70.5.

Factory surveys done by regional Federal Reserve banks generally showed improvement for October. The national ISM report supports the view that the U.S. factory sector is reviving this quarter.

CRUDE OIL:

US Crude oil: $ 83.25

OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Settles $1.52 Higher At $82.95/Bbl

Crude-oil prices rose above $83.57 a barrel before the dollar rebounded. Crude futures finished higher Monday after Saudi Arabia's oil minister suggested he was comfortable with higher oil prices, while a rapidly expanding Chinese manufacturing sector signaled that demand will continue to rise.

Saudi Arabia has 264 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, and could continue to supply the world market for another 80 years, the country's oil minister says.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled up $1.52, or 1.9%, at $82.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a two-week intraday high of $83.86. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange recently increased $1.20, or 1.4%, to $84.35 a barrel.

Gasoline/Petrol/Diesel: 
Front-month December reformulated gasoline blend stock, or RBOB, gained 3.35 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.0929 a gallon. December heating oil/diesel added 4 cents, or 1.8%, to end at $2.2777 a gallon.

NATURAL GAS:

US GAS: Futures Close Down 5.1% At $3.832/MMBtu

PRECIOUS METALS:

US Gold: $1,350

US Silver: $ 24.56

Gold futures climbed.in early trading, but overall have been trading flat as the US Dollar steadies.

The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, settled down 0.5%, or $7, at $1,350.60 per troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold futures turned negative as the dollar strengthened on positive economic data. Dollar-denominated gold prices ease as the dollar strengthens because the contract becomes more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies. The ICE Dollar Index was recently at 77.288, from 76.773 earlier.

Gold trading may be muted ahead until Wednesday afternoon, as few market participants are willing to make significant changes until more detail is known about the expected Federal Reserve stimulus program.

The greenback rallied after the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 56.9 in October from 54.4 the prior month.

Settlements (Ranges include both Floor and Electronic trading):
London PM Gold Fix: $1,354.50 ; previous PM $1,346.75
Dec gold $1,350.60, down $7; Range $1,349.10-$1,366.40
Dec silver $24.552, down 1.2 cents; Range $24.515-$25.055
Jan platinum $1,711.50, up $4.40; Range $1,706.10-$1,727.90
Dec palladium $648.70, up $3.60; Range $644.65-$657.30

Engelhard Corp's base price for industrial gold bullion was $1354.50 per troy ounce, up $4.81 from previous. It's selling price for gold in fabricated form was $1459.26, up $8.34.

Handy & Harman's base price for gold was $1354.50 per troy ounce, up $7.75. The fabricated form price was $1462.86, up $8.37.

TREASURYS:

Treasury prices fell into negative territory Monday, pushing yields up. Early demand for Treasurys was mixed, with the two-year note flat and the 10-year note up, pushing its yield down to 2.57%.

US BONDS:

3 Month     0.08%     -0.01 (-11.11%)
6 Month     0.13%     -0.01 (-7.14%)
2 Year     0.34%     0.00 (0.00%)
5 Year     1.17%     +0.06 (5.41%)
10 Year     2.63%     +0.06 (2.33%)
30 Year     4.01%     +0.06 (1.52%)

U.S. TO BORROW $362 BILLION In 4Q

The U.S. plans on borrowing nearly $800 billion over a six-month period after running up record budget deficits during the past two fiscal years.

The Treasury Department on Monday, estimated it would borrow $362 billion October through December, down from its August forecast of $380 billion for the quarter.

Treasury expects to borrow $431 billion for the next quarter, January through March.

During July-September 2010, Treasury issued $396 billion in debt.

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Canadian Market:

Toronto Stocks Higher; Energy Sector Leads

Four of Toronto's 10 sectoral indexes were higher with the energy group up 0.73% as crude prices strengthened on expectations that increased manufacturing activity in China and India will boost oil demand.

Oil-sands developer Suncor had gained 50 Canadian cents to C$33.18 and Canadian Natural Resources, an oil and gas producer, was up 0.19 to 37.31

The materials group was down 0.46% even though increased global manufacturing activity could boost demand for other resources. Weakness in gold stocks were weighing on the group as the underlay bullion price treaded water as the dollar gained ahead of Wednesday when the Federal Reserve could anounce another round of economic stimulus.

At 11:45 a.m. EDT (1545 GMT), the S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 20.10 points, or 0.16%, at 12696.34 and advances led declines 758 to 606. Trading volume was 201.40 million shares. The S&P/TSX 60 Index was up 0.70 points, or 0.10%, to 728.79 points.

Toronto Indexes, Volume; 2 PM EDT Composite Up 30.89

 S&P/TSX Composite   12707.33  up   30.89  or 0.2%
 S&P/TSX 60 Index      729.66  up    1.57  or 0.2%
 Financials            179.61  up    0.20  or 0.1%
 Materials             407.76  up    0.01  or 0.0%
 Energy                290.54  up    2.59  or 0.9%
 Industrials           107.74  up    0.21  or 0.2%
 IT                     29.42  up    0.01  or 0.0%

   Volume       Monday   Friday
   1-2                53.6M    45.1M
   9:30-2            315.4M   299.0M

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South American Markets:

ARGENTINA:

Argentina September Supermarket Sales +17.9%

Argentina's September supermarket sales were up 17.9% on the year, the national statistics institute, Indec, reported Monday.

Sales were up 0.2% from the previous month. Both figures are seasonally adjusted. Sales totaled ARS5.2 billion ($1.3 billion) in September. Indec's supermarket sales data is based on a survey of 66 distribution companies across the country.

ARGENTINA CONSTRUCTION GAINS
Argentina Sept Construction Activity Extends Rise To 11 Months

Construction in Argentina continued to grow at a rapid pace in September, extending the rise to 11 consecutive months. Construction in September rose 8.5% on the year in seasonally adjusted terms, and was up 0.4% on the month, the national statistics agency Indec reported Monday.

During the first nine months of the year, construction was up 9.2% on the year. Building slumped last year as the effects of the international financial crisis rippled through the economy, but began to recover in October 2009.

The year-on-year gain peaked at 13.5% in March and remained in the double digits in April and May, before cooling somewhat in June due to a higher base for comparison from a year earlier.

A survey of firms engaged in public works projects found that 67.8% expected no change in their business next month, 24.3% thought business will increase, and 8.1% expected a decrease. As for companies engaged in projects in private-sector construction, 73.4% expected no change in their business, 8.7% expected improvement, and 17.4% expected a decrease.


____________________________________________________________

European Markets:

European shares were mixed Monday at the beginning of a week that will be dominated by the midterm elections in the United States and central bank meetings.

European shares edged up on Monday, with enthusiasm over a pick-up in manufacturing growth just offsetting nerves ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting likely to outline the central bank's monetary easing plans.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top shares ended 0.1 percent higher at 1,088.01 points -- a near one-week closing high -- but pared gains from earlier in the session when it hit a high of 1,094.74 points.

Mining shares rallied, with the STOXX Europe 600 basic resources index .SXPP up 1.2 percent, after metals prices were boosted by an early morning decline in the dollar.The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 added 2.4 percent in October .

Europe's largest low-cost airline, Ryanair (RYA.I) (RYA.L), slipped 3.8 percent. It failed to wow investors with an upgrade to its full-year earnings forecast after missing market forecasts for second-quarter net profit.

Mail and express group TNT (TNT.AS) fell 4.2 percent after the Dutch company posted worse-than-expected results, dragged down by restructuring, pension and other costs in its mail unit.

Portuguese retailer Jeronimo Martins (JMT.LS) rose 4.7 percent after the Lisbon government and opposition reached an agreement on the 2011 budget and left value-added tax on most basic foodstuff at lower rates.

LONDON:

British shares gained on Monday, led by the mining sector, as strong manufacturing data from the U.S. and China buoyed sentiment. The market opened very strongly on the back of the Chinese data but quickly pulled back after better-than-expected UK PMI data. The Bank of England holds its policy meeting on Thursday.

While the Bank of England decision on Thursday is important to investors, it ranks second to what the U.S. Federal Reserve does on Wednesday.

The FTSE 100 index (UK:UKX 5,695, +19.46, +0.34%) rose 0.3% to end at 5,694.62.

The index fluctuated between gains and losses throughout the morning but turned higher in early afternoon trading.

Shares of Xstrata (UK:XTA 1,255, +45.00, +3.72%)  gained 3.7% and Kazakhmys PLC (UK:KAZ 1,339, +23.00, +1.75%)  added 1.8%.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (UK:RBS 45.58, +0.97, +2.17%) (RBS 14.55, +0.17, +1.18%) rose 2.2%. Lloyds Banking Group PLC (UK:LLOY 69.60, +0.66, +0.96%) rose 1%.

Shares of recruitment companies Hays (UK:HAS 113.80, +3.30, +2.99%)  and Michael Page International (UK:MPI 489.80, +18.60, +3.95%) clocked gains of 3% and 4% respectively after Credit Suisse upgraded its recommendation on both stocks to outperform, citing their exposure to international markets.

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Asian Pacific Markets:

Asian shares were lifted by China's surprisingly strong Purchasing Manager's Index report, with the main Shanghai index rising 1.9 percent in the morning session. Manufacturing in China and India continue to surge in October, bucking the trend in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. 


CHINA:

CHINA GROWTH SEEN

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing Managers' Index rose nearly a point in October to 54.7, indicating strong growth.

China's factories ramped up their production last month and were buoyed by an influx of new
business, highlighting the strength of the world's second-largest economy but also pointing to price pressures.

Two surveys of the manufacturing sector, which are designed to provide an early indication of conditions in a broad range of industries, both jumped to six-month highs in October.

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 54.7 in the month from 53.8 in September, blowing past expectations. The HSBC PMI, a private companion, climbed to 54.8 from 52.9.

Four straight months of stronger official PMIs jive with other signs that China's economy has built up a head of steam.

This momentum gave the government the confidence to raise interest rates on Oct. 19 for the first time in nearly three years, and some economists believe another increase could be in
store before the end of the year.

DOMESTIC GROWTH

Both surveys showed that output expansion was driven by domestic growth, not external demand.

While the sub-index for total new orders in the official PMI climbed to a six-month high of 58.2 from 56.3, that for new export orders dipped to 52.6 from 52.8. The HSBC survey revealed a similar pattern.

The 54.7 reading for the official PMI, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), was higher than the median forecast of 52.9 in a Reuters poll of 12 economists and, in fact, higher than every individual forecast.

Chinese growth has been decelerating, at least in year-on-year terms, throughout the year.

After growing 11.9 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, the pace slowed to 10.3 percent in the second quarter and 9.6 percent in the third quarter.

China reports inflation data for October next week.

CKI, HK Electric-Led Consortium Completes Purchase Of UK Assets

A consortium led by Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. (1038.HK) and Hongkong Electric Holdings Ltd. (0006.HK) has completed the acquisition of Electricite de France SA's (EDF.FR) U.K. electricity distribution networks for GBP5.78 billion, CKI and Hongkong Electric said in a joint statement Monday.

Zijin Mining Group (HK:2899 7.61, +0.30, +4.10%) (CN:601899 10.25, +0.61, +6.33%) (ZIJMF 1.00, +0.03, +3.09%) jumped 6.3% and China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec (HK:386 7.49, +0.18, +2.46%), (SNP 95.96, -0.45, -0.47%)(CN:600028 9.10, +0.18, +2.02%) tacked on 2%. Their Hong Kong shares rose by 4.1% and 2.5%, respectively.

China Construction Bank Corp.(CICHY 49.01, +1.12, +2.34%)(HK:939 7.64, +0.25, +3.38%)(CN:601939 5.16, +0.12, +2.38%) rose 2.4% and China Shenhua Energy (CSUAY 45.90, +0.75, +1.66%)(HK:1088 35.95, +1.45, +4.20%) (CN:601088 29.57, +0.97, +3.39%) advanced 3.4% after posting solid third-quarter results on Friday. The companies’ shares climbed by 3.4% and 4.2%, respectively, in Hong Kong.


JAPAN:

Tokyo bucked a generally bullish trend for Asian equities to start the week, with Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul all in rally mode. Japanese stocks ended lower weighed by concerns over the outlook for earnings and a strong yen.

Tokyo stock moves underscore how highly sensitive stock prices are to currency fluctuations, even as Japanese companies scramble to adjust to the yen’s recent surge.

AUSTRALIA:

Australia, Singapore Prime Ministers Discuss Stock Markets Merger

Prime Minister Julia Gillard Sunday warned critics of the planned merger between Singapore and Australia's stock exchanges against seeking to "disturb" long-standing foreign investment processes.

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WORLD FOREX CURRENCIES SNAPSHOT:

(TUESDAY, NOV 1, 2010 4:00 PM EDT)

EUR/USD     1.3887     -0.0008 (-0.06%)
USD/JPY     80.5600 +0.0800 (0.10%)
GBP/USD     1.6033     +0.0015 (0.09%)
CAD/USD     0.9828     +0.0026 (0.27%)
USD/HKD     7.7517     -0.0002 (0.00%)
USD/CNY     6.6892     +0.0185 (0.28%)
AUD/USD     0.9853     +0.0061 (0.62%)

WORLD MARKETS SNAPSHOT:
(TUESDAY, NOV 1, 2010 4:00 PM EDT)

Shanghai     3,054.02     +75.19 (2.52%)
Nikkei 225     9,154.72     -47.73 (-0.52%)
Hang Seng Index     23,652.94     +556.62 (2.41%)
TSEC     8,379.75     +92.66 (1.12%)
FTSE 100     5,694.62     +19.46 (0.34%)
DJ EURO STOXX 50     2,836.73     -8.26 (-0.29%)
CAC 40     3,841.11     +7.61 (0.20%)
S&P TSX     12,664.81     -11.43 (-0.09%)
S&P/ASX 200     4,698.50     +36.90 (0.79%)
BSE Sensex     20,355.63     +323.29 (1.61%)

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MONDAY'S U.S. ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

8:30 a.m.
Sept. Personal Income & Outlays Personal Income (previous +0.5%), Personal Spending (previous +0.4%), PCE Price Index Monthly (previous +0.2%), Yearly (previous +1.5%), PCE Core Price Index Monthly (previous +0.1%), Yearly (previous +1.4%)

9:45 a.m.
Oct DJ Economic Sentiment Indicator (previous 40.7)

10:00 a.m.
Oct ISM Manufacturing Report on Business Manufacturing PMI (previous 54.4), Prices Index (previous 70.5), Employment Index (previous 56.5), Inventories (previous 55.6), New Orders Index (previous 51.1), Production Index (previous 56.5)

10:00 a.m.
Sept. Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place New Construction (previous +0.4%)

TIME ADJUSTMENT:
Clocks In Europe To 'Fall Back' Sunday

European countries will turn back their clocks one hour Sunday as they leave daylight saving time. Countries in North America will make the change Nov. 7.

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US STOCK MARKET SUMMARY, FRIDAY, OCT. 29, 2010:

Stocks:
U.S. stocks finished more or less flat, marking a soft end to a strong October in what appeared to be the calm before the storm of next week's Federal Reserve meeting and midterm elections. It was the strongest October for the S&P 500 since 2003. Microsoft was among the Dow's best performers after the software giant's fiscal first-quarter profit climbed 51%, benefiting from a continued strong response to the Windows 7 operating system and Office 2010.

Treasurys:
Treasurys rose as the latest bout of disappointing U.S. data emboldened investors to bet the Federal Reserve will purchase government bonds next week to support a flagging economy. The reports were the last significant economic indicators before U.S. midterm elections Nov. 2 and a Fed meeting Nov. 2-3.

Forex:
The dollar fell slightly against most of its rivals Friday after new signs of sluggish U.S. growth. The disappointing economic indicators also reinforced views that the Federal Reserve will soon move to stimulate a sluggish economy. The euro, which remains slightly down on the day, pared most of its overnight losses following weak German and Japanese economic data.



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